76ers vs. Heat: James Harden must find vintage form for Philadelphia to survive until Joel Embiid returns

The Philadelphia 76ers came into their second-round opener against the Miami Heat on Monday with one realistic avenue to victory: James Harden had to be the best player on the floor. Perhaps he didn’t need to score 30 or 40 points, but he needed to be the best player on the floor, creating offense for himself and teammates at a dominant clip. 

That didn’t come close to happening. Harden finished with 16 points on 13 shots in Philadelphia’s 106-92 defeat in Game 1. He tallied as many turnovers (five) as assists. Two possessions, which actually accounted for 40 percent of Harden made buckets, tell a pretty accurate tale of the uphill battle scoring has become for Harden, particularly against an elite defense. 

With just under three minutes remaining in the first quarter, Harden found himself isolated on Tyler Herro at the top. As Mark Jones like to say, he played with his food for a few dribbles before hitting a step-back 3 to cut Miami’s lead to seven. 

With Duncan Robinson out of the rotation for Game 1, Miami offered just two defenders to possibly target: Herro and Max Strus, and Herro is by far the weakest link. If Harden was ever going to get a favorable one-on-one matchup, it was here, against Herro, and he didn’t even try to beat him off the dribble. He went to the step-back 3. He made it. Good for him. He’s not going to make enough of those to beat, or even moderately threaten, a team as good as the Heat. 

Understand, there’s nuance to consider here. Take a look at Victor Oladipo showing himself near the elbow to Harden’s left while his man, Matisse Thybulle, stands uncovered in the corner. This is the problem non-shooters pose. Oladipo is ready to pounce if

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NBA MVP Rankings: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic battling for top spot; Stephen Curry still in striking distance

We’re well past the halfway point, nearing the trade deadline and less than three weeks out from All-Star Weekend. Every year I say this, but the season just always goes faster than you expect. The playoff race is taking shape and so are the awards. Below is where, in my opinion, the MVP race stands entering play on Friday, Feb. 4th. 

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Joel Embiid is the new betting favorite (+225 at Caesars Sportsbook), but I’m sticking with Jokic (second at +300) at the top for now. Jokic has been the best player all season, plain and simple. Embiid is going to be tough to beat with the aid of everyone rooting for him because Ben Simmons left him in the lurch, but Jokic, let’s not forget, has been without his second-best player in Jamal Murray all season, too. And Denver’s third-best player, Michael Porter Jr., only played in nine games. 

Jokic’s case rests on the same on-off foundation that has supported it all season: When he’s on the floor, the Nuggets are elite; when he’s off the floor, they’re literally one of the worst teams, statistically speaking, of the past 20 years. 

To put a number to it, the Nuggets are a staggering 26.7 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass (plus-10.7 when he’s on, minus-16.1 when he’s off). Take Jokic off the floor, and the Nuggets post an offensive and defensive rating that would register as the worst in the league. 

Yet here they are — with Jamal Murray having missed the entire season and Michael Porter Jr. all but nine games — sitting at No. 6 in the West just two losses back of a top-four seed. Absolutely remarkable. 

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Since Dec. 1, Embiid is the league’s leading scorer at 31.5 points per

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